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Pivots are everywhere or how I learned from my invalidated assumptions at #LSMDC.

Going into the Lean Startup Machine, I didn’t know really what to expect. My knowledge of lean principles was limited to a handful of Lean Startup Circle Meetups (highly recommended) as well as various blog posts, articles, and videos; I hadn’t worked on a startup before, let alone ‘run’ a ‘business’. And I certainly had never really engaged in customer development. That being said, LSM ended up being one of the most thoroughly exciting, productive, and exhausting weekends I can remember.

Though I came into the weekend with a team and idea, that shouldn’t discourage anyone from attending—most teams formed on Friday night (with some of the best ideas, in my opinion, being thought up right on the spot!). Yet, despite having had some ideas already in the works, the general where-do-I-even-begin sentiment aptly characterizes the start of the weekend. Luckily, LSM’s methodology was there to simplify, quantify, and clarify the entire process of going from idea to business in just a few days. Broadly speaking, the process works as follows: outline your assumptions, test the riskiest ones, pivot accordingly, and iterate. After a few cycles of this, you’re left with a clearer vision of the problem you’re trying to solve, the market you’re serving, and the product that you hope to build. And so we began with our assumptions…

The idea my team worked on was for a crowd sourced lending platform for local businesses (see more: www.clovest.com). In our case, the riskiest assumption to test was the need for financing. We got out of the building early on Saturday going to local businesses and doing some problem interviews. All these interviews followed roughly the same lines—“What sorts of financing issues do you encounter? What kinds of projects need financing? How are projects funded if you don’t get financing?”. Some businesses were more willing to talk than others, but through the process we learned some really valuable lessons. For example, our target market was not who we assumed it would be. Additionally, access to financing wasn’t as much of an issue as the high cost and hassle of obtaining it. After about five or six interviews, I finally understood the importance and value of a key lean strategy: the pivot.

Pivots, I had previously assumed were these large 180-degree shifts in the product or business. As we went through these interviews, however, I realized that we were constantly pivoting. After invalidating our initial assumptions of the target market and financing needs, we altered our approach for the rest of the weekend; the businesses we targeted, the questions we asked, the tone of our pitch— everything was slightly different. In doing so, we ended up with significantly improved results, connected better with customers, and even signed letters of intent. Through customer development, I discovered that a driving force of progress in a lean startup is, in fact, the pivot. Lean startups are powerful precisely because they are able to constantly evolve given the changing needs of customers and the market. And while we didn’t finish testing all of our assumptions, learning the nature and ubiquity of the pivot has really clarified our agenda for our next round of customer development: pivot early and pivot often.

I highly recommend LSM not only to those interested in pursuing their own startup ideas, but to anyone who wants a glimpse into the process of building a business. Reading about lean principles is one thing, but practicing customer development yourself is quite another. While we only went home with the “no yuppies” award (that’s another story), we did collect LOIs from three businesses in under 24 hours. If that doesn’t entice you, the two days of unlimited access to a set of seasoned mentors who provide invaluable advice and are genuinely dedicated to helping your team succeed, should. Not to mention, there are crash courses in all things metric, whether it’s how to leverage AdWords or create a launch page and convert users. All in all, it was probably the best spent weekend (time + money) I’ve had in quite a while. Looking forward to future lean events and what comes of all the impressive customer development work put in by all the LSM DC teams. Big thanks to all the organizers, mentors, and participants for making a truly memorable and enjoyable weekend.

#linsanity.

“In the last two road games, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Toronto Raptors did something they hadn’t all season: They sold out the gate. Here, they cheered Lin longer and louder than anyone on the Raptors. When Lin won the game, the din was deafening. What do the great players always tell you about hitting the big shot on the road, and what they love about the sound in the arena: the silence. They love the silence.

Here, the Air Canada Centre exploded. It was mayhem. Perhaps everyone knows this is something for the ages, something that’s become a happening, and it hardly mattered that Lin had done it to them. It was just that Lin had done it again, and, man, it was something to behold.

“You see what he’s done in arenas, and you see happens when he’s introduced during away games,” Fields said. “The crowd’s going nuts. It’s almost like a home game out there for us.” ” — Yahoo Sports!

you really just have to hear it for yourself and remember that this was an away game:

perhaps that explains this:

“In any event, fans can’t seem to get enough of Lin and his “Lincredible” underdog success story. Since he started his magical run on February 4, Lin’s #17 jersey has been the NBA’s best seller. Yahoo! Sports also reports that since Linsanity surfaced, Knicks merchandise sales have been tops in the NBA, sports stores in midtown Manhattan have sold out multiple shipments of Lin gear, the Knicks have jacked up ticket prices by 27%, and the stock price of the team ownership (Madison Square Garden Co.) has risen 6.2%.” — Time

costa concordia.

this guy:

“The captain reportedly told the investigating judge in the city of Grosseto that he had decided to sail close to Giglio to salute a former captain who had a home on the Tuscan island.” — BBC

“The passengers were pouring onto the decks, taking the lifeboats by assault,” he said, according to the newspaper. “I didn’t even have a life jacket because I had given it to one of the passengers. I was trying to get people to get into the boats in an orderly fashion. Suddenly, since the ship was at a 60 to 70 degree angle, I tripped and I ended up in one of the boats. That’s how I found myself there.” — NYT

“A taxi driver who says he took the captain to a hotel on Saturday morning – after the ship had crashed – told Ansa news agency the captain had asked only where he could buy some socks. “He looked like a beaten dog, cold and scared,” the taxi driver said.” — BBC

juxtaposed.

“The December numbers also give us an opportunity to step back and look at 2011 as a whole. The economy gained 1.9 million private-sector jobs and lost 280,000 public-sector jobs. The unemployment rate dropped from 9 percent to 8.5 percent. U6 — the economic pain measure that combines formal unemployment, marginally attached workers, and workers who are part-time but wish to be full-time — dropped from 16.1 percent to 15.2 percent.” — Washington Post

“The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, the main gauge of broad market performance, closed on Friday at 1,257.60, finishing the year nearly dead even with its 2010 close of 1,257.64, which is technically down 0.003 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average of 30 blue-chip American stocks fared better, closing the year with a 5.5 percent gain at 12,217.56.” — New York Times

ADDENDUM: a little clarity on who is getting these jobs, via Matt Yglesias at Slate.

how the #firstworld thinks of itself.

“I think it’s telling that so many professionals are trying to identify themselves as part of the creative class. In a time of high unemployment when traditional skills can be outsourced or automated, creative skills remain highly sought after and highly valuable. We all want to be part of the creative class of programmers, designers, and information workers. The term used to mean artists and writers. Today, it means job stability.” — TechCrunch

louis ck’s grand experiment.

“The part that isn’t new here is Louis C.K. using the Web and doing it on his own. We’ve seen a bunch of that over the years, mostly from entertainers who have already become famous (or at least semi-famous) with the help of mainstream media. Prince and Radiohead sold their own music only after they sold lots of songs for big music labels. Adam Carolla leapt/got pushed from TV and radio gigs into podcasting.

The new twist here is the way his experiment changes video “windows” — which determine when shows and movies show up on different outlets. By going direct-to-fan first, C.K. doesn’t shut off his chance to end up working the Big Media Companies he says he doesn’t want to work with. He’s just making them wait. So the people who really love him can get it right away, and he can capture almost all of that value in the transaction.

We’ll call it the Louis C.K. Window.” — AllThingsD

“When you do USO, the last thing they want you to do is turn around and say anything controversial — sexually or otherwise … because they don’t want any trouble. So here’s what always happens: You find yourself in front of a room of wounded veterans, and they just want to have fun. They want to see you go crazy. So every time I did these shows, I would start polite, and then I would maybe test the waters with one something dirty, and they would go crazy. And I’m looking at a bunch of guys who want relief, who want to laugh. And listen, if you had an IED take away part of your sex life, I think laughing about sex is actually a relief for you. These guys just laughed so hard at the sex jokes that I just got dirtier and dirtier.

“I would be told by a battery of people to keep it clean, keep it clean. And then I’d go onstage and the soldiers would beg me to get dirty, and I would get really dirty. And then I’d come offstage and apologize. And I started to realize that’s what they all wanted me to do, including the people who were telling me to keep it clean.” — NPR

ADDENDUM: The immediate (financial) results of the grand experiment are in. Louis C.K.’s statement via his website (which is really interesting to read in and of itself):

“The show went on sale at noon on Saturday, December 10th. 12 hours later, we had over 50,000 purchases and had earned $250,000, breaking even on the cost of production and website. As of Today, we’ve sold over 110,000 copies for a total of over $500,000. Minus some money for PayPal charges etc, I have a profit around $200,000 (after taxes $75.58). This is less than I would have been paid by a large company to simply perform the show and let them sell it to you, but they would have charged you about $20 for the video. They would have given you an encrypted and regionally restricted video of limited value, and they would have owned your private information for their own use. They would have withheld international availability indefinitely. This way, you only paid $5, you can use the video any way you want, and you can watch it in Dublin, whatever the city is in Belgium, or Dubai. I got paid nice, and I still own the video (as do you). You never have to join anything, and you never have to hear from us again.”

aaaaaaaaand i’m back.

via Kottke

looking forward to getting started again. pardon the look for now, working out some styling issues.

the fall of #joepa.

having been a lifelong nittany lion’s fan, the child abuse scandal at Penn State has been shocking and saddening to say the least. as Paterno clearly failed in his responsibility as a community leader rather than simply football coach, the question that remains is why?  Megan McArdle’s piece in the atlantic sums up this argument neatly:

Nor are the laments about the power of football programs, and ambitious coaches willing to do anything to advance their careers. I mean, I am sure that there are a lot of people out there who fit that description, but it doesn’t answer the main question: how did covering up for child rapists become career-advancing?  How did a large group of people somehow tacitly agree to protect a serial offender guilty of just about the worst crime imaginable in American society?

With most of the scummy stuff that happens at companies or institutions, there’s some pretty clear purpose for it. You cheat on your taxes or illegally dump your toxic waste or violate NCAA recruiting rules or procure hookers for the clients because hey, you make more money that way. But no one has articulated any clear reason that any of the people involved should have declined to call the police. There must be some reason, but I don’t know what it is. Talking about the hierarchy and clannishness and self-protection of the football program describes the mechanism by which the secret was kept, but they do not explain the keeping.

McArdle’s feelings, similar to most people’s, can be summed up by this flow chart via adulting blog:

flow

in any case, Paterno must certainly find an answer to that question, and fast. as he may unfortunately learn, being too old, unaccustomed, or uncomfortable to discuss child rape are not legally valid reasons to avoid dealing with it, especially given the extent to which it occurred. As Andrew Cohen points out, this initial unearthing of the scandal is hardly going to be the legal end to all this:

Pennsylvania Attorney General Linda Kelly must resolve these and many other questions before making any final decisions about what to do with Paterno (and McQueary, who so far also has avoided charges). If McQueary saw Sandusky anally raping a 10-year-old boy in the shower did he tell Paterno exactly what he saw? If not, why not? And if so, why didn’t Paterno communicate the precise nature of the allegation to Curley? Does McQueary’s ambiguity save Paterno? Is Paterno’s ambiguity actionable? Was Paterno covering up during his grand jury testimony for Sandusky? Was he throwing McQueary under the bus? And what happens now when the 84-year-old ex-coach tells the grand jury or the prosecutors: “I forget exactly what McQueary told me back in 2002″?

These unresolved questions tell us two things about the investigation to date. They tell us that the initial grand jury probe was not good enough — too many of the most important questions evidently were either unasked or left vaguely answered by the witnesses. And they tell us that it is still way too early to gauge the full fallout from this mess. Can you build a legitimate perjury case, or a failure-to-report-abuse case, against a legend like Paterno by focusing upon the degree of description the coach used in communicating what he knew of the episode? Kelly, the attorney general, has to ask herself that question before she goes after the most popular Pennsylvanian since Benjamin Franklin.

from a long piece in the atlantic by taylor branch, here is a view into the money machine that is the NCAA and it’s arbitrary yet ruthless board that enforces decisions that only further cement its existence as the preeminent authority on all things sports in college. it’s likely that many people will come to blame the culture they fostered, the privatization and commodification of college athletics, as the reason why Paterno’s ‘Grand Experiment’ was built up into the unquestionable empire it became. yet in many ways, his program, in fact, embodied the very line the NCAA was trying to sell: college athletics as an ‘amateur’ pursuit rather than corporate enterprise. tellingly, they have yet to issue a statement on the events on the past few days, nor is it clear what their stance would be.

But what Vaccaro said in 2001 was true then, and it’s true now: corporations offer money so they can profit from the glory of college athletes, and the universities grab it. In 2010, despite the faltering economy, a single college athletic league, the football-crazed Southeastern Conference (SEC), became the first to crack the billion-dollar barrier in athletic receipts. The Big Ten pursued closely at $905 million. That money comes from a combination of ticket sales, concession sales, merchandise, licensing fees, and other sources—but the great bulk of it comes from television contracts.

The moral logic is hard to fathom: the NCAA bans personal messages on the bodies of the players, and penalizes players for trading their celebrity status for discounted tattoos—but it codifies precisely how and where commercial insignia from multinational corporations can be displayed on college players, for the financial benefit of the colleges. Last season, while the NCAA investigated him and his father for the recruiting fees they’d allegedly sought, Cam Newton compliantly wore at least 15 corporate logos—one on his jersey, four on his helmet visor, one on each wristband, one on his pants, six on his shoes, and one on the headband he wears under his helmet—as part of Auburn’s $10.6 million deal with Under Armour.

the real problem with the #oops.

“The problem is that he didn’t seem to know the basic details of his own proposal. Here he was calling for what would be a truly radical restructuring of the federal government — involving many thousands of jobs and many billions of dollars in federal expenditures — and he didn’t have a grasp on which sprawling departments he would shutter. It seemed the idea was not his own, but rather something he had tried and failed to memorize.

And in this way, Mr. Perry violated one of the core tenets of modern politics, which is that you have to at least sustain the artifice of ownership. We know, of course, that presidential candidates don’t actually write their own speeches or stay up late at night tinkering with their own proposals to overhaul Medicare. We get all that.

But we do expect them to really believe in the things they propose — to have the requisite conviction to know and recite with passion the basic policies that someone on their team stayed up nights to craft. Say what you want about Mr. Bush, but no one ever doubted his deep well of resolve on tax cuts or education reform. He had command of his own plan, if not all the underlying data.” — Matt Bai via NYT